The Month That Proved Winter Can't Stop Real Estate
January 2026 presented a fascinating dichotomy in the Waterloo Region real estate market. While home sales experienced a significant monthly dip, several underlying indicators suggest we're entering a period of renewed market activity—and for sellers, that's genuinely encouraging news.
Let's break down what happened and why you should care.
The Numbers: A Tale of Two Trends
Sales declined 13.9% month-over-month, which at first glance might seem alarming. December is typically the strongest month before the winter slowdown, so this decrease is actually a normal seasonal pattern. More importantly, it doesn't tell the whole story.
The real headline? New listings surged 100.3%—they literally doubled from December to January.
That doubling is significant. And it happened despite January bringing some of the region's worst winter weather: multiple snowstorms, periods of extreme cold, and weather warnings that kept many people indoors. The fact that sellers still brought properties to market in such challenging conditions demonstrates something crucial: confidence in the market.
Price Growth: The Silver Lining
Here's where the optimism becomes concrete:
MLS® HPI increased 1.0% month-over-month
Down 9.3% year-over-year (but stabilizing)
MLS® HPI increased 0.3% month-over-month
Down 8.7% year-over-year (similarly stabilizing)
Monthly price growth, even modest growth, is a positive signal. It suggests that even as volume decreased seasonally, the properties that did sell maintained or improved their pricing. This is textbook market stabilization after a correction period.
Inventory: The Game Changer
Inventory levels increased 13.6% year-over-year, reaching a 2.5-month supply of all property types by the end of January.
What does 2.5 months of supply mean? It's balanced territory.
Below 2 months: Seller's market (limited choice, higher prices)
2-3 months: Balanced market (fair pricing, good selection)
Above 4 months: Buyer's market (more negotiating power)
At 2.5 months, the Waterloo Region is in the sweet spot where both buyers and sellers have reasonable negotiating position. For sellers, this means your property has genuine competition—but it also means there are active, motivated buyers looking to purchase.
What This Means for Sellers Right Now
If you're considering selling in the Waterloo Region, January's data points toward favorable conditions:
1. Buyer interest is present. Sales may have decreased seasonally, but the doubling of new listings means fresh inventory is attracting attention. Your property would be entering a market with engaged buyers.
2. Prices are stabilizing. The modest monthly gains in both Kitchener-Waterloo and Cambridge suggest we've passed the steeper correction phase. Year-over-year declines are moderating.
3. Inventory levels are healthy. A 2.5-month supply means your home won't languish on the market, but it also won't face artificial urgency pricing. You have room to price strategically.
4. Seller confidence is returning. The 100% surge in new listings despite brutal winter weather isn't luck—it's sellers recognizing that now is a reasonable time to list.
The Weather Story That Matters
As Cornerstone Association of REALTORS® CEO Bill Duce noted: "Despite the monthly decrease in sales volume, Waterloo Region is showing encouraging signs with modest monthly price growth in both Kitchener-Waterloo and Cambridge. The doubling of new listings from December to January demonstrates renewed seller confidence, especially considering January's challenging weather conditions."
This is the key takeaway: sellers overcame genuine obstacles (snowstorms, extreme cold, weather warnings) to bring properties to market because they believe in the opportunity. That belief is backed by data showing prices are stabilizing and buyers are active.
Looking Ahead
With inventory up, sales stabilizing, and prices showing monthly growth, the Waterloo Region market is entering what looks like a normalized, balanced period. For sellers, this is the window to list before spring competition intensifies. For buyers, there's finally adequate supply to shop thoughtfully.
If you've been sitting on the fence about selling—or helping a client understand why January is actually a strong listing window—the data supports action.
Have questions about the current Waterloo Region market? Let's talk about your specific situation.
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*** Not intended to solicit clients under contract. Content is for informational purposes and not guaranteed nor warrantied ***
Data sources: Cornerstone Association of REALTORS®, ITSO InfoSparks, February 3, 2026
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