The demand for ownership housing has picked up markedly in recent months. Many homebuyers have recalibrated their housing needs in the face of higher borrowing costs and are moving back into the market. In addition, strong rent growth and record population growth on the back of immigration have also supported increased home sales. The supply of listings hasn't kept up with sales, so we have seen upward pressure on selling prices during the spring.
Ontario - The Demand for Ownership Housing Has Picked Up Markedly.
Toronto,01 June 2023 -- The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market continued to improve from a sales perspective in May 2023. Unfortunately, the supply of homes for sale did not keep up with the demand for ownership housing. Sales as a share of new listings were up dramatically compared to a year ago. This is a clear signal that competition between buyers increased substantially compared to last year, resulting in the average selling price reaching almost $1.2 million last month.
“Despite the fact that we have seen positive policy direction over the last couple of years, governments have been failing on the housing supply front for some time. Recent polling from Ipsos found that the City of Toronto residents gave Council a failing grade on housing affordability and pointed to lack of supply as the major issue. This issue is not unique to Toronto. It persists throughout the Greater Golden Horseshoe. If we don't quickly see housing supply catch up to population growth, the economic development of our region will be hampered as people and businesses look elsewhere to live and invest,” said Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) President Paul Baron.
GTA REALTORS® reported 9,012 sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in May 2023 – a 24.7 per cent increase compared to May 2022. Conversely, new listings were down by 18.7 per cent over the same period. On a month-over-month seasonally adjusted basis, sales were up by 5.2 per cent compared to April 2023.
“The demand for ownership housing has picked up markedly in recent months. Many homebuyers have recalibrated their housing needs in the face of higher borrowing costs and are moving back into the market. In addition, strong rent growth and record population growth on the back of immigration have also supported increased home sales. The supply of listings hasn't kept up with sales, so we have seen upward pressure on selling prices during the spring,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.
The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) composite benchmark was down by 6.9 per cent year-over-year in May 2023, but up by 3.2 per cent on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis compared to April 2023. The average selling price, at $1,196,101, represented a small 1.2 per cent decline relative to May 2022. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the average selling price was up by 3.5 per cent compared to April 2023.
Ottawa Resale Market Heats Up in May
Ottawa, June 5, 2023 -- Sales increase for the first time since February 2022
Members of the Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB) sold 1,939 residential properties in May through the Board’s Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) System, compared with 1,830 in May 2022, an increase of 6%. May’s sales included 1,477 in the freehold-property class, up 8% from a year ago, and 462 in the condominium-property category, a 1% increase from May 2022. The five-year average for total unit sales in May is 1,961.
“Typically the highest-selling month, May’s transactions did not disappoint,” says Ken Dekker, Ottawa Real Estate Board President. “This month we saw the first year-over-year unit sales volume increase since February 2022. It is a promising year for sellers barring any interest rate adjustments, as we saw a correlated drop in sales every time there was an interest rate hike in 2022.”
“However, with only five to six weeks of inventory, we are in a strong seller’s market. With the pent-up high demand and sales volume increasing, we are likely to see upward pressure on prices as demand continues to outstrip supply.”
By the Numbers – Average Prices*:
The average sale price for a freehold-class property in May was $745,902, a decrease of 7% from 2022, but still on par with April 2023 prices.
The average sale price for a condominium-class property was $442,859, decreasing 6% from a year ago. However, it marks a 2% increase over April 2023 prices.
With year-to-date average sale prices at $727,728 for freeholds and $428,394 for condos, these values represent a 12% decrease over 2022 for freehold-class properties and a 9% decrease for condominium-class properties.
“We are not seeing steep price escalations yet. May’s average prices stayed on par with April’s, although prices are well over what we saw at the end of 2022. With demand mounting in Ottawa’s chronically undersupplied market, I expect the average sale price will surpass last year’s figures for a month over the same month in the latter half of 2023 again—provided we do not see interest rate hikes.”
By the Numbers – Inventory & New Listings:
May’s new listings (2,822) were 9% lower than May 2022 (3,117) and up 32% from April 2023 (2,140). The 5-year average for new listings in May is 2,922.
Months of Inventory for the freehold-class properties has increased to 1.5 months from 1.2 months in May 2022 but down from 1.9 months in April 2023.
Months of Inventory for condominium-class properties has increased to 1.3 months from 1 month in May 2022, although down from 1.9 months in April 2023.
Days on market (DOM) for freeholds decreased from 27 to 23 days and 33 to 26 days for condos compared to last month.
“Given our housing stock challenges, some neighbourhoods are again in multiple offer territory. REALTORS® have up-to-the-minute market data and are best positioned to help both buyers and sellers in this evolving competitive resale market.”
REALTORS® also help with finding rentals and vetting potential tenants. Since the beginning of the year, OREB Members have assisted clients with renting 2,731 properties compared to 2,230 last year at this time, an increase of 22%.
METRO VANCOUVER MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
Metro Vancouver, 17 MAY 2023 -- While the year started slower than usual, Metro Vancouver’s1 housing market is showing signs of heating up as summer arrives, with prices increasing for the sixth consecutive month.
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential home sales in the region totalled 3,4112 in May 2023, which is a 15.7 per cent increase from the 2,947 sales recorded in May 2022, and a 1.4 per cent decline from the 10-year seasonal average (3,458).
"Back in January, few people would have predicted prices to be up as much as they are – ourselves included. Our forecast projected prices to be up modestly in 2023 by about two per cent at year-end. Instead, Metro Vancouver home prices are already up about six per cent or more across all home types at the midway point of the year." Andrew Lis, REBGV director of economics and data analytics
There were 5,661 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver in May 2023. This represents an 11.5 per cent decrease compared to the 6,397 homes listed in May 2022, and was 4.3 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average (5,917).
The total number of homes currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 9,293, a 10.5 per cent decrease compared to May 2022 (10,382), and 20.6 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average (11,705).
Across all detached, attached and apartment property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for May 2023 is 38.4 per cent. By property type, the ratio is 28.5 per cent for detached homes, 45 per cent for townhomes, and 45.5 per cent for apartments.
Analysis of the historical data suggests downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12 per cent for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months.
“You don’t have to squint to see the reason prices continue to increase. The fundamental issue remains that there are more buyers relative to the number of willing sellers in the market. This is keeping the number of resale homes available in short supply,” Lis said.
“And in a surprising twist, MLS® sales in May snapped back closer to historical averages than we’ve seen in the recent past, despite mortgage rates being where they are now, and new listing activity has been slower than usual this spring. If mortgage rates weren’t holding back market activity so much right now, I think our market would look a lot like the heydays of 2021/22, or even 2016/17.”
The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,188,000. This represents a 5.5 per cent decrease over May 2022 and a 1.3 per cent increase compared to April 2023.
Sales of detached homes in May 2023 reached 1,043, a 30.7 per cent increase from the 798 detached sales recorded in May 2022. The benchmark price for a detached home is $1,953,600. This represents a 6.7 per cent decrease from May 2022 and a 1.8 per cent increase compared to April 2023.
Sales of apartment homes reached 1,730 in May 2023, a 7.9 per cent increase compared to the 1,604 sales in May 2022. The benchmark price of an apartment home is $760,800. This represents a two per cent decrease from May 2022 and a 1.1 per cent increase compared to April 2023.
Attached home sales in May 2023 totalled 608, a 16.7 per cent increase compared to the 521 sales in May 2022. The benchmark price of an attached home is $1,083,0003. This represents a 4.7 per cent decrease from May 2022 and a 0.2 per cent increase compared to April 2023.
Alberta -- May sales reach a record high
City of Calgary, June 1, 2023 – Thanks to a significant gain in apartment condominium sales, May sales rose to 3,120, a new record high for the month. While the monthly gains have not outweighed earlier declines, this does reflect a shift from the declines reported at the start of the year.
At the same time, we continue to see fewer new listings on the market than last year, causing inventory levels to fall. With a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 85 per cent and months of supply of one month, conditions continue to favour the seller placing further upward pressure on home prices.
“Calgary’s housing market continues to exceed expectations with the recent gain in sales activity this month,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “The higher interest rate environment and recent rental rate gains have driven more consumers to seek apartment condominium units. In addition, the recent rise in new apartment listings has provided enough options to support the sales gain. Calgary continues to benefit from the relatively healthy job market and recent population growth keeping housing demand strong across all property types.”
Persistently tight market conditions drove further price growth this month. In May, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $557,000, over one per cent higher than last month and nearly three per cent higher than last year’s monthly peak price of $543,000.
Detached - Rising sales for homes priced above $600,000 was not enough to offset declines in the lower price ranges as May sales reached 1,486, a year-over-year decline of eight per cent. New listings continue to fall for homes priced below $700,000, providing limited choice for consumers seeking out lower-priced detached homes. While new listings did improve for higher-priced properties, the relatively strong demand kept conditions tight across all price ranges, driving further price gains.
In May, the detached benchmark price reached $674,000, nearly two per cent higher than last month and over four per cent higher than last year’s peak price of $647,000. While each district reported a new record high price this month, the year-over-year gains ranged from a high of 12 per cent in the East District to a low of two per cent in the City Centre.
Semi-Detached - Sales also rose to near-record highs for the month for semi-detached homes. However, with 279 sales and 269 new listings this month, inventories fell, and the months of supply dropped below one month.
The exceptionally tight conditions caused further price gains, which for the first time, pushed above $600,000. This is the seventh consecutive month where prices have trended up, and as of May, levels are over three per cent higher than last year’s monthly peak. Like the detached sector, each district reported new record high prices in May. However, the strongest year-over-year gains occurred in the most affordable East district at nearly 12 per cent.
Row - New listings in May improved over levels seen earlier in the year, but thanks to monthly gains in sales, the sales-to-new listings ratio remained exceptionally high at 89 per cent, preventing any significant shift in the low inventory situation. While sales activity is still lower than last year’s levels, this is likely related to the lack of supply in this segment of the market. Inventory levels are down 50 per cent compared to last year.
With less than one month of supply, it is not a surprise that prices continue to rise. In May, the benchmark price reached $390,500, a two per cent gain over last month and nearly nine per cent higher than last year's peak price of $359,600. Row prices rose across all districts, with year-over-year gains exceeding 15 per cent in the city's North East, South and East districts. The slowest price gains occurred in The City Centre, North West and South East at rates of over seven per cent.
Apartment Condominium - Sales in May reached 858 units, a year-over-year gain of 36 per cent and high enough to cause year-to-date sales to rise by four per cent for a new record high. Stronger sales were possible thanks to the recent gains in new listings. There were 1,025 new listings in May, a year-over-year gain of eight per cent. Despite the gain in new listings, the sales-to-new listings ratio remained high at 84 per cent, preventing any significant shift in inventory levels. As a result, inventory levels remained 23 per cent lower than what was available in the market in May 2022. The rising sales and low inventories kept the months of supply low at just over one month.
Persistently tight conditions drove further price gains in May. The unadjusted benchmark price reached $298,600, a monthly gain of over one per cent and a year-over-year gain of nearly 11 per cent. The recent growth has finally caused unadjusted apartment condominium prices to return to 2014 levels. Unlike other areas, not all districts reported a new record high price. The only areas to report a full recovery were the North, North West, West and South East districts. Overall year-over-year price growth ranged from a high of 16 per cent in the North District to a low of 10 per cent growth in the City Centre.
REGIONAL MARKET FACTS
Airdrie - Limited supply choice continues to weigh on sales activity in Airdrie. In May, there were 260 new listings and 225 sales, keeping the sales to new listings ratio high at 87 per cent and preventing any significant shift in inventory levels. However, with less than one month of supply, conditions are tighter than they were last year at this time.
Persistently tight conditions caused prices to trend up for the fifth consecutive month. The benchmark price reached $502,900 in May, remaining shy of the record high of $504,200 achieved in April 2022. While total residential prices have not reached new record highs, detached home prices have reached a new record with a benchmark price of $587,200.
Cochrane - Like other markets in the area, the limited level of new listings is preventing stronger sales activity. In May, 135 new listings came onto the market, and there were 122 sales, keeping the sales-to-new listings ratio elevated at 90 per cent. While inventory levels are still higher than last year’s, they are still exceptionally low for this time of year, leaving the months of supply just above one month in May.
The persistently tight conditions caused prices to trend up for the fourth consecutive month. While the benchmark price of $515,600 remains below the monthly high of $517,900 achieved in June 2022, should conditions continue to remain this tight, we could see further upward pressure on home prices over the next several months.
Okotoks - Like other markets, low levels of new listings are limiting sales activity in the town. In May, new listings reached 87 units, and with 76 sales, the sales-to-new listings ratio pushed above 87 per cent. This also prevented any significant shift in inventory levels, and the months of supply once again dropped below one month.
Persistently tight market conditions caused prices to trend up for the fifth consecutive month. With a benchmark price of $575,900, prices are nearly four per cent above last year’s levels and at a new record high.
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