The question on every prospective homebuyer's mind in Waterloo Region right now is simple: should I buy today, or wait for better conditions? With shifting market dynamics, changing interest rates, and evolving government policies, the answer isn't as straightforward as it once was. Let me break down the current reality of our local market and help you make an informed decision.
Current Market Reality: A Buyer's Market Emerges

The Waterloo Region housing market has undergone a significant transformation through 2025. According to the Cornerstone Association of Realtors, home sales dropped 8.8% to just over 6,000 transactions, while the average sale price decreased to approximately $717,000: a 5-6% year-over-year decline. But here's what's particularly interesting for buyers: new listings surged 13.8%, jumping from 10,855 to 12,354 properties.
This shift represents a fundamental change from the seller's market we experienced during the pandemic years. Today's buyers enjoy:
Increased Inventory and Selection
With nearly 1,500 more properties on the market compared to 2024, buyers have significantly more options. This translates to less competition, longer decision-making periods, and greater negotiating power. In neighbourhoods like Laurelwood, Beechwood, and the University area, properties are staying on the market longer, giving buyers the luxury of careful consideration.
Reduced Competition
The frenzy of multiple offers above asking price has largely subsided. While desirable properties in prime locations like Uptown Waterloo or near the LRT corridor still generate interest, the overwhelming majority of listings are selling at or below asking price after reasonable market exposure.
Interest Rates: The Game Changer

Perhaps the most significant factor influencing affordability has been the decline in interest rates from their 2023 peaks. While mortgage rates remain higher than the ultra-low levels of 2020-2021, the downward trend has dramatically improved monthly carrying costs for homebuyers.
For a typical Waterloo Region home priced at $717,000 with a 20% down payment, the difference between peak rates and current levels represents savings of several hundred dollars monthly. This improvement in affordability has been particularly beneficial for first-time buyers looking at condos in areas like downtown Kitchener or near Conestoga College.
Government Incentives: New Support for 2026
The federal and provincial governments have announced significant changes for first-time homebuyers taking effect in 2026. Most notably, the removal of HST on new homes up to $1 million represents substantial savings: potentially $90,000+ on a new construction property.
This policy change is particularly relevant in Waterloo Region, where numerous new developments are underway in areas like the Innovation District, downtown Kitchener's core, and along the LRT corridor. Projects like those planned for the former Breithaupt Block or new developments in Cambridge's Galt core could benefit significantly from this tax relief.
Price Forecast: What to Expect in 2026

Market analysts predict relatively flat pricing through early 2026, with a potential slight decrease of up to 3%. This stability is expected due to several factors:
Balanced Inventory Levels
The current inventory increase appears to be stabilising rather than accelerating, preventing sharp price declines while maintaining buyer advantages.
Economic Uncertainty
Ongoing adjustments in the technology sector: particularly relevant given our region's tech concentration: continue to influence local employment and housing demand.
National Trends
While national forecasts suggest a 6.3% sales rebound with 3% price increases, Waterloo Region may not follow this pattern exactly due to our unique local factors.
Property Type Considerations
Single-Detached Homes
The detached home segment continues to face the greatest affordability challenges, with average prices of $839,394 in December 2025. However, this segment also offers the greatest negotiating opportunities, particularly in established neighbourhoods like Forest Heights, Westmount, or Stanley Park.
Condominiums
Condos were the only property type showing sales increases in 2025, reflecting buyers' shift toward more affordable entry points. Units in buildings like those near Waterloo Town Square or downtown Kitchener's growing high-rise inventory remain active.
Townhouses
Townhomes continue attracting move-up buyers and young families seeking a balance of affordability and space. Developments in areas like RIM Park or newer sections of Cambridge offer particular value.
Neighbourhood Spotlight: Where to Focus
Downtown Cores
Both Kitchener and Waterloo's downtown areas offer excellent value, particularly with LRT accessibility and ongoing revitalization efforts.
University Area
Properties near University of Waterloo and Wilfrid Laurier University maintain steady demand, offering both owner-occupancy and investment potential.
Cambridge
Often overlooked, Cambridge neighbourhoods like Preston or areas along the Grand River offer excellent value for buyers seeking larger properties at lower price points.
The Case for Buying Now
Current conditions strongly favour buyers ready to move. The combination of increased inventory, downward price pressure, improving interest rates, and pending government incentives creates what industry experts describe as "a good year for first-time buyers."
Key advantages include:
- Maximum selection and negotiating power
- Improved affordability compared to 2023-2024
- Access to new government incentives
- Stable pricing environment reducing urgency pressure
The Case for Waiting
While conditions favour buyers, some considerations support waiting:
- Potential for additional 2-3% price declines in early 2026
- Possible further interest rate improvements
- More inventory potentially entering the market
However, these benefits must be weighed against the risk of increased competition if market activity rebounds later in 2026.
Making Your Decision
The decision ultimately depends on your individual circumstances. If you've found a property that meets your needs and budget, current market conditions provide excellent negotiating opportunities. The days of needing to act within hours are largely behind us.
For first-time buyers, the combination of current inventory levels and upcoming government incentives makes 2026 particularly attractive. Move-up buyers benefit from both selling and buying in favourable conditions.
Key Questions to Ask Yourself:
- Have you secured mortgage pre-approval at current rates?
- Does the property meet your medium-term needs (5+ years)?
- Are you prepared for homeownership responsibilities?
- Do you have adequate emergency funds beyond your down payment?
Bottom Line
With prices expected to remain mostly stable rather than experience significant declines, waiting may only yield marginal additional savings while risking slightly higher competition if market activity rebounds. The current environment offers strategic opportunities for informed buyers ready to move forward.
Whether you're a first-time buyer eyeing a condo near the universities, a growing family considering Laurelwood or Beechwood, or an investor exploring Cambridge's potential, now represents one of the more buyer-friendly periods we've seen in recent years.
The key is working with experienced local representation who understands neighbourhood nuances, pricing strategies, and negotiation tactics specific to today's market conditions.
Kim Louie, Real Estate Broker partnered with Coldwell Banker Peter Benninger Realty | Your Waterloo Region Real Estate Resource
📲 519.573.0837
📧 realtorkimlouie@gmail.com
💻 www.kimlouie.net
*** Not intended to solicit clients under contract. Content is for informational purposes and not guaranteed nor warrantied ***











